National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life's Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate PDF

By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Jr. Elbert W. Friday

ISBN-10: 0309090237

ISBN-13: 9780309090230

The document explores how top to speak climate and weather details by means of providing 5 case reports, chosen to demonstrate quite a number time scales and concerns, from the forecasting of climate occasions, to supplying seasonal outlooks, to projecting weather change.

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Extra info for Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: A Workshop Summary

Example text

Since the original purpose of the National Academies was to provide sound scientific advice to the government, the study was accepted. The NRC completed this study in less than one month, releasing its report on June 6. Communication Summary Who? S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) communicated the findings of a special study on climate change science. The NAS committee that conducted the study was composed of 11 members chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance (and with minimal involvement in the IPCC Third Assessment report), 7 of whom were also members of the NAS.

The media and other value-added providers should be careful to convey the limitations of forecasting science when presenting life- and property-threatening information, even in an increasingly competitive marketplace. Remaining Challenges • Improve the understanding of the accuracy of deterministic models. • Improve the understanding of the subliminal effects of peer pressure within the forecast community, which appears to reduce the communication of uncertainty in forecasts. • Identify the appropriate role of the public and private sector in conveying information and the timing of statements forecasting major storms.

The clearly received information that anthropogenic climate change was probably occurring and would likely be a significant environmental “event” of the twenty-first century was conveyed to the public by the media. The balance of scientific evidence was recognized as supporting this view, even with the caveat of significant uncertainties. Lacking in the media, for the most part, were the tones of prior reporting in which both sides of the argument were given equal weight. , real climate change expected by end of the twenty-first century) rather than the uncertainties was the focus.

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Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: A Workshop Summary by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Jr. Elbert W. Friday


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